Sun, Jan 18, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 38 | 01 | 16 | 415 |
| DET | 05 | 39 | 312 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cody Hodgson, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:21BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Andre Benoit · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 13:37BUFChris StewartPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Nikita Zadorov · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 1:00DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 4:07DETDrew MillerAssists: Joakim Andersson, Danny DeKeyser · Slap, 0.29 xG3–2
- P2 10:08DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 1:59DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 5:05DETHenrik ZetterbergPPGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 8:31BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
- P3 11:59DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Kyle Quincey, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:25DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:49BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:26BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:57BUFAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:09DETStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
- P3 15:00BUFChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Mitchell – Ennis13:20
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Varone4:16
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Varone7:21
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers4:10
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Strachan8:44
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers20:47
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Zadorov13:55
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Pulkkinen7:35
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening6:58
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Datsyuk – Abdelkader – Tatar2:46
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Sheahan2:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser16:19
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet7:43
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson5:25
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).