Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 012 | 313 | 03 | 0 | 438 |
| DET | 26 | 27 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09DETTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Stephen Weiss, Brendan Smith · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:22MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:30DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:41DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 7:25DETXavier OuelletAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 6:01MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–4
- P3 10:01MINThomas VanekAssists: Ryan Suter, Ryan Carter · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 13:21MINZach PariseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:15DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:58MINKyle Brodziak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:28DETLuke Glendening: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:15DETHenrik Zetterberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:53DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:47MINJustin Fontaine: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Zucker – Coyle7:46
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Carter – Haula – Niederreiter6:34
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Carter – Coyle3:07
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise12:52
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin15:51
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin4:52
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Suter – Folin3:09
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen6:09
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Glendening10:39
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist12:04
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:44
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet12:41
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:59
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:40
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).