Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 04 | 012 | 112 | 128 |
| TBL | 06 | 110 | 310 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:32TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 0:11TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 4:16TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Brett Connolly, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 8:09VANFrank CorradoAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Chris Higgins · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:34TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Cedric Paquette, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.58 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:55VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:38VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:52VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:28TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:38TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:45TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:54TBLJonathan Drouin: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:46VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 10:34TBLBrett Connolly: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 11:17TBLAnton Stralman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:02VANRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:12TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Dorsett – Horvat7:19
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Vey6:52
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Matthias – Bonino – Kassian10:04
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata10:19
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev12:06
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa2:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Corrado9:52
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Stamkos10:06
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly4:59
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Connolly – Paquette2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:41
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov5:02
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Garrison – Witkowski10:35
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Witkowski – Hedman2:38
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).