Wed, Jan 21, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 114 | 217 | 340 |
| OTT | 312 | 08 | 16 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Stone, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:53OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:40OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 13:55TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Cody Franson, Daniel Winnik · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 2:36TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:20OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 18:37TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:49TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:49OTTMilan Michalek: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:49TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:49OTTMilan Michalek: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:17TORRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:46TORRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:03OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:37OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Winnik – Bozak13:23
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Booth – Smith – Frattin7:12
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Smith2:18
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Panik – Leivo6:09
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Rielly2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Percy12:32
xG 0.42–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Franson – Gardiner2:44
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad9:47
xG 0.77–0.26 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone10:55
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:40
xG 0.29–0.28 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Neil – Condra – Lazar10:14
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:06
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 18–19goals 2–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch10:19
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Cowen2:35
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).