Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 011 | 02 | 118 |
| CGY | 18 | 08 | 315 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33BUFChris StewartPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:40CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 9:05CGYJosh JoorisGWGAssists: Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 14:06CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Raphael Diaz, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 17:28CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:20CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:47BUFTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27CGYJoe Colborne: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:08BUFBrian Flynn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:39BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:06BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Jooris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Stewart – Hodgson12:11
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers4:29
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn10:28
xG 0.01–0.33 (2%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons13:22
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Weber15:51
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers15:13
xG 0.12–0.42 (23%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Ristolainen12:17
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Bouma10:25
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig5:54
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Jooris9:19
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:17
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:09
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz10:17
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell18:05
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).