Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 07 | 013 | 128 |
| TBL | 28 | 37 | 017 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Alex Killorn, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:59DETDarren HelmAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:23TBLCedric PaquetteGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:18TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:03TBLCedric PaquetteSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 17:39TBLMark BarberioAssists: Andrej Sustr, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:43TBLBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:43DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:43TBLBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:30DETJoakim Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:04TBLRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:10TBLJason Garrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:10DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Jurco6:02
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:51
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Weiss – Miller – Andersson4:22
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Jurco – Glendening3:27
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:36
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:35
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet17:00
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov15:02
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Paquette – Drouin12:16
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Brown6:17
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos11:47
xG 0.33–0.71 (31%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Nesterov8:52
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Stralman – Barberio9:28
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:46
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).