Thu, Jan 29, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 013 | 28 | 012 | 233 |
| FLA | 013 | 211 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:08CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:49FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brad Boyes, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:36FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Brian Campbell, Dave Bolland · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 18:34CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Artem Anisimov, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 13:08FLASean BergenheimGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Alexander Petrovic · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:37CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:32CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20CBJJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20FLASean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20FLASean Bergenheim: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:20FLASean Bergenheim: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:52FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:08CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen10:51
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Anderson – Wennberg9:19
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Dubinsky – Tropp9:19
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Calvert6:57
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout15:42
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Connauton13:29
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard16:06
xG 0.27–0.79 (25%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBergenheim – Bolland – Hayes3:07
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky7:47
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Pirri – Bjugstad4:43
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bergenheim – Bolland4:45
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad18:50
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic10:38
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson16:29
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).