Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 29 | 115 | 04 | 1 | 437 |
| STL | 012 | 413 | 06 | 04 | 2 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Deflected, 0.43 xG1–0
- P2 5:36NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 8:22STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 12:36STLT.J. OshieAssists: Paul Stastny, David Backes · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:02STLSteve OttAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:32NSHMike FisherSHAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 18:15STLRyan ReavesAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 17:22NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 5. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 6. NSH Roman Josi scored
- 7. STL Kevin Shattenkirk scored
- 8. NSH James Neal stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:30NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:30NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:30STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:30STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:30STLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:45NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:16STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 2:01NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:30NSHEric Nystrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:41NSHFilip Forsberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:33STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:42STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:56NSHVictor Bartley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok7:46
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:13
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson8:48
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Gaustad – Nystrom6:13
xG 0.23–0.91 (20%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Jones10:05
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Volchenkov – Ekholm9:49
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi14:35
xG 0.40–1.40 (22%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Goc – Reaves7:01
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:40
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:07
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin5:28
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:02
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Jackman – Cole11:32
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:20
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).