Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 08 | 14 | 220 |
| EDM | 212 | 012 | 110 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22BUFTyler MyersAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Brian Gionta · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:27EDMMatt FraserAssists: Anton Lander, Luke Gazdic · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:02EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Anton Lander, Matt Fraser · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 7:52EDMAnton LanderGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Fraser · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 17:58BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Brian Gionta, Zemgus Girgensons · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:31BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 3:45BUFBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29EDMBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:48EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:29BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P3 19:50EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:28
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn11:50
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Deslauriers2:15
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers2:10
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Weber14:37
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Ristolainen11:16
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen2:40
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins15:28
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:12
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Gazdic – Lander – Fraser6:46
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov10:34
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom13:39
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 23–4goals 3–0
- Fayne – Klefbom3:36
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry16:26
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).