Sat, Jan 31, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 09 | 19 | 123 |
| DET | 18 | 14 | 27 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 19:13DETBrendan SmithGWGAssists: Tomas Jurco, Riley Sheahan · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 5:24NYILubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 9:21DETJonathan EricssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 13:08DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:17NYIMikhail Grabovski: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 17:46DETLuke Glendening: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:03DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:10DETJustin Abdelkader: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:14DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:18NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P3 10:01NYIBrock Nelson: Embellishment2 min
- P3 10:01DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:21NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:22NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Lee – Strome5:05
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome4:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Bailey – Tavares2:47
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Lee – Nelson3:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:32
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:56
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:00
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:19
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Jurco6:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Sheahan – Glendening8:16
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:18
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:52
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:30
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko13:32
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).