Sat, Jan 31, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 2, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 016 | 115 | 237 |
| OTT | 18 | 210 | 413 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40ARIZbynek MichalekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 1:09OTTMike HoffmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 16:51OTTMilan MichalekAssists: David Legwand, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:54OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Marc Methot, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 1:57OTTBobby RyanAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 2:17OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 5:16ARISam GagnerAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Keith Yandle · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 11:52OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 18:33OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:19ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:49ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 8:47OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:47ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27ARIDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:43ARIMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 19:06ARIMartin Erat: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:53OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
- P2 19:28OTTMarc Methot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:14OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:12ARIBrendan Shinnimin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:12OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Rieder8:14
xG 0.23–0.07 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Moss – Chipchura – McMillan7:35
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Crombeen – Shinnimin – Lessio10:18
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Erat – Korpikoski – Gagner8:56
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone15:47
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson13:12
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Campbell – Murphy11:40
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Zibanejad9:14
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Neil – Condra – Pageau7:34
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Legwand – Michalek – Stone9:25
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Turris – Hoffman – Lazar10:33
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:34
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 3–2
- Cowen – Ceci10:05
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Phillips – Borowiecki12:15
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).