Sat, Jan 31, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 016 | 112 | 135 |
| TBL | 18 | 011 | 215 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 10:02TBLCedric PaquetteGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 11:43TBLValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 16:34CBJRyan JohansenAssists: David Savard, Ryan Murray · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:07CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:18CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 10:20CBJCorey Tropp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:56TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:28TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:28CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:56CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
- P3 4:28TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:15TBLAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:56CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen10:01
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Dubinsky – Tropp8:59
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Skille – Anisimov – Wennberg7:06
xG 0.05–0.49 (9%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Johnson9:04
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray12:54
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Connauton8:19
xG 0.28–0.92 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Paquette – Drouin6:30
xG 0.85–0.09 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:02
xG 0.52–0.29 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly5:28
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos10:18
xG 0.38–0.32 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman4:49
xG 0.96–0.20 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Garrison – Witkowski4:43
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Barberio – Sustr10:10
xG 0.40–0.10 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).