Sun, Feb 1, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 114 | 29 | 332 |
| MTL | 210 | 05 | 05 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:55MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: David Desharnais, Jiri Sekac · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 17:43ARILauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Martin Erat, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 0:32ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 3:17ARILauri KorpikoskiPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:48ARIAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:46ARIBrendan Shinnimin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:13MTLManny Malhotra: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57MTLTom Gilbert: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Rieder15:39
xG 0.69–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Moss – Chipchura – McMillan10:31
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Shinnimin – Lessio4:54
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Erat – Korpikoski – Gagner13:42
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson18:17
xG 0.63–0.18 (77%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stone18:39
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Campbell – Murphy12:25
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:01
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Dumont – Thomas – Sekac2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Prust – Desharnais – Gallagher2:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Thomas – Sekac6:41
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Beaulieu2:50
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban19:36
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 22–18goals 1–1
- Weaver – Beaulieu11:04
xG 0.03–0.30 (9%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).