Mon, Feb 2, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 210 | 014 | 336 |
| NYR | 19 | 28 | 321 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 8:49NYRRick NashSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 2:51NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:28NYRMarc StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:51FLADave BollandAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–3
- P2 15:30FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 8:10NYRDan BoyleGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 15:58NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Chris Kreider, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–5
- P3 18:07NYRRick NashENAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:49NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:52FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:45FLADave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:58FLATomas Kopecky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:41FLAErik Gudbranson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 17:35FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:35NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Huberdeau – Barkov12:46
xG 1.27–0.23 (85%)attempts 27–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Bergenheim – Bolland9:55
xG 0.52–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky8:26
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Bjugstad11:42
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:16
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Petrovic12:53
xG 1.18–1.00 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson16:54
xG 0.50–0.62 (44%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kreider – Zuccarello3:25
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Hagelin – Fast3:53
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hagelin – Fast8:20
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Stepan12:45
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore12:37
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:28
xG 1.28–1.28 (50%)attempts 18–24goals 1–1
- Klein – Staal15:07
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).