Mon, Feb 2, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 116 | 212 | 112 | 00 | 2 | 540 |
| SJS | 112 | 012 | 311 | 02 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 18:03EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Oscar Klefbom · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:22EDMJordan EberleAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–1
- P2 9:39EDMDerek RoyAssists: Nail Yakupov · Slap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 2:19SJSScott HannanAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 3:49SJSMatt TennysonAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:28SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.30 xG3–4
- P3 17:23EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Teddy Purcell, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. SJS Joe Thornton stopped
- 6. EDM Teddy Purcell stopped
- 7. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 8. EDM Nail Yakupov stopped
- 9. SJS Brent Burns scored
- 10. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 11. SJS Melker Karlsson stopped
- 12. EDM Matt Fraser stopped
- 13. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 14. EDM Keith Aulie stopped
- 15. SJS Barclay Goodrow stopped
- 16. EDM Justin Schultz stopped
- 17. SJS Matt Tennyson stopped
- 18. EDM Anton Lander stopped
- 19. SJS Tyler Kennedy stopped
- 20. EDM Oscar Klefbom stopped
- 21. SJS James Sheppard stopped
- 22. EDM Boyd Gordon stopped
- 23. SJS Matt Nieto stopped
- 24. EDM Jeff Petry stopped
- 25. SJS Matt Irwin stopped
- 26. EDM Rob Klinkhammer scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:59SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:43EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51EDMJeff Petry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins7:30
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Roy – Purcell – Lander2:55
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov5:10
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer11:24
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom15:57
xG 1.44–0.44 (77%)attempts 26–10goals 2–0
- Fayne – Schultz2:11
xG 0.64–0.71 (47%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Klefbom3:17
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson14:20
xG 1.96–0.30 (87%)attempts 26–8goals 2–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Hertl9:08
xG 1.31–0.42 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Marleau – Sheppard – Hertl4:48
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Desjardins – Scott4:16
xG 0.01–0.39 (3%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Irwin15:12
xG 1.70–0.64 (73%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic17:43
xG 1.62–1.05 (61%)attempts 20–18goals 1–2
- Dillon – Tennyson19:43
xG 0.90–1.44 (39%)attempts 23–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).