Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 37 | 08 | 03 | 318 |
| MTL | 19 | 010 | 115 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cody Hodgson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 8:15MTLBrandon PrustAssists: David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:53BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 19:19BUFBrian GiontaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 4:20MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Dale Weise, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:05MTLBrandon Prust: Holding2 min
- P2 0:45BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:17BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Hodgson – Flynn9:21
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers5:14
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn2:05
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell14:11
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 10–23goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Weber17:59
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 17–24goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov11:15
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gorges – Myers19:25
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 11–35goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise5:28
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Prust – Dumont – Thomas7:20
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Weise8:27
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:46
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin11:20
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 22–6goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Beaulieu15:28
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Markov – Subban22:50
xG 0.64–0.84 (43%)attempts 38–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).