Tue, Feb 3, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 04 | 28 | 08 | 4 | 324 |
| DAL | 110 | 19 | 012 | 01 | 3 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 19:08DALErik ColeAssists: Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 6:12COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brad Stuart, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.41 xG1–2
- P3 19:40COLTyson BarrieAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 6. COL Alex Tanguay stopped
- 7. DAL Vernon Fiddler stopped
- 8. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 9. DAL John Klingberg stopped
- 10. COL Jarome Iginla stopped
- 11. DAL Patrick Eaves stopped
- 12. COL Tyson Barrie stopped
- 13. DAL Shawn Horcoff stopped
- 14. COL John Mitchell stopped
- 15. DAL Antoine Roussel scored
- 16. COL Daniel Brière scored
- 17. DAL Colton Sceviour scored
- 18. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
- 19. DAL Erik Cole stopped
- 20. COL Zach Redmond stopped
- 21. DAL Ales Hemsky stopped
- 22. COL Max Talbot scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:27COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:58COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:03COLZach Redmond: Holding2 min
- P2 4:16DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:57DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:14COLZach Redmond: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche4:53
xG 0.03–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:45
xG 0.74–0.93 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Everberg9:01
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene12:49
xG 0.07–0.83 (8%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Holden12:51
xG 0.57–0.72 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie2:53
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hejda – Redmond13:58
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:57
xG 1.13–0.16 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky8:20
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:09
xG 0.25–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin12:18
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn12:35
xG 0.88–0.03 (96%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:31
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Daley – Jokipakka16:06
xG 0.82–0.70 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).