Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 09 | 112 | 01 | 228 |
| VAN | 114 | 09 | 18 | 12 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Ben Chiarot, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:05VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:13WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 12:32VANRonalds KeninsAssists: Bo Horvat, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:36VANLuca SbisaGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:42WPGAnthony Peluso: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:53WPGAnthony Peluso: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:53WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:53VANDerek Dorsett: Instigator2 min
- P1 7:53VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:53VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:49WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P1 19:50WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:43VANDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P2 15:26VANRyan Stanton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:40WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:40WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:40VANShawn Matthias: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:53VANRonalds Kenins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:22WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:42
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Frolik – Lowry9:25
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian15:53
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Stuart – Trouba4:45
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pardy – Chiarot3:59
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Vrbata – Matthias – Bonino8:19
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Horvat – Kenins5:52
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Vey8:00
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:15
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Sbisa11:35
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev13:34
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Stanton – Clendening10:04
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).