Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 03 | 212 | 217 | 00 | 432 |
| ANA | 013 | 211 | 25 | 12 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:37ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 9:24CARAlexander SeminAssists: Victor Rask, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:41CARJay McClementAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:21ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 4:01CARBrad MaloneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
- P3 5:10CARJordan StaalAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 9:31ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ben Lovejoy · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 15:52ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Kesler, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 0:45ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:02CARRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:54CARJiri Tlusty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:10CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:17ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P3 0:17ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:01ANACam Fowler: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:43ANABen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
- P3 13:00ANAEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:27CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Malone11:44
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Staal – Lindholm13:12
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Semin – Tlusty – Rask10:30
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Skinner8:08
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gleason12:36
xG 0.88–0.10 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Faulk2:06
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Murphy14:40
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey10:52
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Smith-Pelly7:14
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg2:08
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell6:53
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:30
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Brewer – Vatanen15:49
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:01
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).