Wed, Feb 4, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 26 | 07 | 07 | 220 |
| NYR | 112 | 29 | 04 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50NYRRick NashAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:37BOSMilan LucicAssists: Reilly Smith, David Krejci · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 15:29BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 6:41NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:56NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:19NYRLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50BOSReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:19NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:24BOSDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Smith10:40
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham8:41
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg2:11
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand7:44
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug13:11
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid13:39
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 4–17goals 0–2
- Chara – Hamilton15:34
xG 0.44–0.94 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Fast10:14
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kreider – Zuccarello13:50
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Stepan10:15
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Moore – Hagelin – Fast2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore13:08
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal3:05
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:51
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).