Thu, Feb 5, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Arizona Coyotes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 013 | 015 | 05 | 1 | 241 |
| ARI | 111 | 07 | 010 | 01 | 0 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03CARVictor RaskAssists: Ron Hainsey, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:38ARIDavid MossAssists: Keith Yandle, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ARI Lucas Lessio stopped
- 2. CAR Elias Lindholm scored
- 3. ARI Sam Gagner stopped
- 4. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 5. ARI Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:07ARILauri Korpikoski: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:09ARIAlexandre Bolduc: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:53ARIMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Skinner – Rask9:11
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Gerbe – Tlusty – Nestrasil11:01
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Staal – Lindholm12:16
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone10:47
xG 0.09–0.24 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles8:55
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk12:08
xG 0.48–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Faulk2:11
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Korpikoski7:01
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Gagner – Shinnimin – Lessio2:23
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Shinnimin – Lessio7:32
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Gagner – Shinnimin2:04
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson16:27
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Murphy14:09
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone17:53
xG 0.49–0.98 (33%)attempts 12–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).