Sat, Feb 7, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 012 | 112 | 132 |
| TOR | 09 | 311 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:56TORRichard PanikPPAssists: Peter Holland, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:34TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:26TORMorgan RiellyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 0:39TORMike SantorelliAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 9:58TORPeter HollandAssists: Stephane Robidas · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 19:57EDMLuke GazdicAssists: Rob Klinkhammer, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:16EDMRob Klinkhammer: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16TORDavid Booth: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:16EDMRob Klinkhammer: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54EDMJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:56EDMMatt Fraser: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:14TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGazdic – Lander – Pakarinen7:08
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Fraser – Yakupov10:45
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:09
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Purcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:33
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom17:41
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Petry – Marincin5:18
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Fayne – Marincin9:06
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Winnik – Kadri14:04
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Booth – Smith – Panik9:17
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:47
xG 0.66–0.65 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Holland8:59
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly17:26
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Franson – Gardiner15:59
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 24–16goals 2–0
- Robidas – Holzer11:52
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).