Sat, Feb 7, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 5, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 210 | 26 | 530 |
| SJS | 09 | 18 | 310 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 5:33CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Alexander Semin, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:26SJSTomas HertlAssists: Chris Tierney, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 10:13CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:27SJSTomas HertlAssists: Scott Hannan, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–2
- P3 3:49SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Matt Tennyson, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 15:09CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Jay McClement, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:50CARVictor RaskENGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–3
- P3 19:05SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:27CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:31SJSMatt Tennyson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:39SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:32SJSBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Staal13:12
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:41
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone10:18
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Nestrasil10:37
xG 0.29–0.82 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore14:37
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Sekera – Faulk17:11
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Liles – Gleason16:23
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Hertl – Tierney5:48
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Tarasov – Tierney4:34
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Hertl4:17
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto12:40
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Tennyson13:25
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Mueller13:12
xG 0.36–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hannan – Burns18:22
xG 0.77–1.12 (41%)attempts 13–26goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).