Mon, Feb 9, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 17 | 18 | 325 |
| MIN | 311 | 210 | 011 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05MINJordan SchroederAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:37MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 10:18VANZack KassianAssists: Chris Higgins, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 15:37MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 1:11VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 7:05MINRyan SuterPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 7:59MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 17:57VANRyan StantonAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:32MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:32VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:42VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
- P1 10:18VANLuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:18MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:20VANNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:31VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:29MINMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:11MINJordan Schroeder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:49VANRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:39VANAlexander Edler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Matthias – Bonino3:53
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Matthias – Vey2:26
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kassian – Vey10:12
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat9:19
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:02
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Sbisa17:59
xG 0.65–0.48 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Stanton – Tanev2:21
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Niederreiter9:16
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Schroeder – Haula3:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Schroeder – Coyle – Niederreiter2:24
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Haula – Coyle4:43
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba3:30
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Prosser – Dumba8:29
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Suter – Brodin14:54
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).