Mon, Feb 9, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 110 | 19 | 01 | 2 | 329 |
| CHI | 013 | 111 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:44CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 17:23ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 3:59ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 12:18CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Lucas Lessio scored
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 5. ARI Antoine Vermette scored
- 6. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:17ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:34ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:50CHIPatrick Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 17:45CHIJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:37ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:54ARIMartin Erat: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Korpikoski11:57
xG 0.84–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder13:48
xG 0.91–0.75 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- McMillan – Shinnimin – Lessio8:56
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Erat – Bolduc – Gagner10:17
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone16:38
xG 0.91–0.59 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Campbell – Murphy15:37
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:41
xG 0.38–1.03 (27%)attempts 14–19goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad13:49
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Kane – Smith – Kruger2:39
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Teravainen10:35
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger6:34
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Hjalmarsson2:23
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson11:18
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Keith – Rundblad7:31
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).