Tue, Feb 10, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 217 | 214 | 18 | 539 |
| TOR | 16 | 110 | 218 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57NYRDan BoyleAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:37NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 15:39TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Cody Franson, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:42NYRKevin HayesAssists: Marc Staal, Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 2:08TORStephane RobidasAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 10:33NYRDominic MooreSHAssists: Carl Hagelin, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 0:20TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Daniel Winnik, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 6:46TORDaniel WinnikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 14:04NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:33NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:32TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 4:02TORRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:24
xG 0.48–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:52
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller10:00
xG 0.79–0.69 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:09
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore12:00
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh18:01
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Klein – Staal15:09
xG 0.61–1.49 (29%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Panik3:44
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri14:35
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Booth – Smith – Panik7:17
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Holland8:13
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Holzer12:13
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Franson – Gardiner15:23
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Polak – Rielly16:46
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).