Tue, Feb 10, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 210 | 012 | 233 |
| FLA | 25 | 310 | 111 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Dave Bolland · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:20FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:37FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 7:23ANAKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 12:50FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Brad Boyes, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 13:12FLADave BollandAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Erik Gudbranson · Slap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P2 14:54ANATim JackmanAssists: Clayton Stoner, Sami Vatanen · Backhand, 0.00 xG2–5
- P3 12:44FLAJimmy HayesPPAssists: Steven Kampfer, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:47ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:46ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:46FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:57ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:35ANAKyle Palmieri: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 17:58FLAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57FLASteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
- P2 15:02ANABen Lovejoy: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:24ANAKyle Palmieri: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:51ANAPatrick Maroon: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 13:52ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:52ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Thompson – Cogliano3:11
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri9:02
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Smith-Pelly – Rakell6:46
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon9:22
xG 0.12–0.46 (20%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen14:12
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 23–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Lovejoy12:42
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 0–3
- Beauchemin – Fowler13:50
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Jokinen3:20
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov6:45
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland8:48
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad7:49
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Petrovic10:29
xG 0.56–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson10:51
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:06
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 9–20goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).