Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 29 | 115 | 13 | 438 |
| MTL | 19 | 111 | 15 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25MTLChristian ThomasAssists: Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:06MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:04EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Jeff Petry, Andrew Ference · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:09EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 9:17MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:35EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:47EDMAnton LanderGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:26MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46EDMMartin Marincin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:45EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:41MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:09EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 16:45MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:22
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:22
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Roy – Hamilton – Yakupov10:21
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen6:38
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry10:07
xG 1.35–0.29 (82%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Schultz – Klefbom19:07
xG 1.07–0.23 (82%)attempts 20–11goals 0–2
- Fayne – Marincin12:16
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Bournival – Thomas – de la Rose6:37
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Sekac2:05
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac5:56
xG 0.00–0.18 (1%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise11:12
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Beaulieu11:47
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Emelin13:56
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban18:06
xG 0.27–1.24 (18%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).