Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 011 | 013 | 133 |
| NSH | 111 | 19 | 16 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:42WPGMichael FrolikPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:38NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:10NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:48WPGBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:54NSHVictor Bartley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:54WPGAnthony Peluso: Interference2 min
- P2 3:22WPGAnthony Peluso: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:20NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:16WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:07NSHMatt Cullen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:33NSHVictor Bartley: Interference2 min
- P3 9:02NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:04WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:49WPGMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Frolik – Lowry7:27
xG 0.53–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:15
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso5:08
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele9:20
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba10:16
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot10:28
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers14:38
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson8:09
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok7:55
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck8:19
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg10:18
xG 0.23–0.88 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Josi13:48
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Jones11:08
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bartley – Bitetto12:38
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).