Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 6, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 210 | 38 | 631 |
| COL | 05 | 18 | 216 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:30NYRDan BoyleAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:47NYRKevin HayesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 12:46COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: John Mitchell, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 16:02NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 6:43COLJarome IginlaAssists: Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 10:44COLJan HejdaAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:02NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 15:42NYRRick NashAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 18:59NYRRyan McDonaghENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:31COLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:31NYRKevin Hayes: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 9:10NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:22NYRJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 13:30NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41COLZach Redmond: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:02NYRTanner Glass: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 17:40COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NYRTanner Glass: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Miller9:08
xG 0.94–0.41 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:12
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:15
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:02
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Hunwick8:31
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 3–0
- Klein – Hunwick2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal3:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Talbot – Duchene2:08
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg3:20
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene8:16
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:44
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Holden11:58
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Hejda – Elliott3:54
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Guenin – Barrie11:09
xG 0.56–0.57 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).