Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 2, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 110 | 06 | 227 |
| OTT | 112 | 418 | 212 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:17EDMDerek RoyAssists: Ryan Hamilton, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:41OTTCody CeciAssists: Erik Condra, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 0:57OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 3:06EDMMark FayneAssists: Jeff Petry, Andrew Ference · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 3:44OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 18:44OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Erik Condra, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 14:07OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–6
- P3 15:59OTTDavid LegwandPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:24OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:11EDMRyan Hamilton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:47EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:47OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:45OTTDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
- P3 14:07EDMTeddy Purcell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 14:07EDMTeddy Purcell: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Pouliot – Lander – Pakarinen12:02
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic6:28
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Hamilton – Yakupov11:02
xG 0.31–1.27 (20%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Purcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:14
xG 0.28–1.65 (14%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Schultz3:13
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Fayne – Marincin13:38
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Klefbom15:00
xG 0.49–1.55 (24%)attempts 15–17goals 1–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Turris – Stone10:30
xG 1.29–0.31 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:09
xG 1.12–0.30 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Condra – Chiasson – Lazar11:51
xG 0.85–0.29 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Legwand – Neil – Pageau3:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci16:04
xG 1.42–0.22 (87%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki13:34
xG 1.49–0.34 (81%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson17:18
xG 1.12–0.15 (89%)attempts 19–8goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).