Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 17 | 019 | 337 |
| NYI | 217 | 117 | 312 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anders Lee, John Tavares · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 8:21NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:45CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:28CBJCam AtkinsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 7:02NYIRyan StromeAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P2 19:28CBJNick FolignoAssists: Scott Hartnell, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 1:54NYIFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Thomas Hickey, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 7:08NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee, Brian Strait · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–5
- P3 11:15NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:19NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:19CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:19CBJScott Hartnell: Kneeing2 min
- P1 12:33NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:49CBJCorey Tropp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:24CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 7:21NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:21CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:21CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:25NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:04NYIJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P3 12:22NYIFrans Nielsen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen8:39
xG 0.67–0.74 (48%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Skille – Anisimov – Wennberg6:14
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp7:08
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:59
xG 0.34–0.89 (28%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Savard14:08
xG 0.41–0.77 (35%)attempts 13–13goals 0–3
- Tyutin – Goloubef11:42
xG 0.39–0.91 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton13:38
xG 0.71–2.05 (26%)attempts 18–24goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee10:20
xG 1.35–0.33 (80%)attempts 17–9goals 4–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome7:31
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Nelson8:57
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas10:13
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey13:00
xG 1.33–0.14 (91%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Strait – Hamonic12:43
xG 1.24–0.82 (60%)attempts 14–19goals 3–1
- Boychuk – Leddy13:38
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).