Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 213 | 07 | 327 |
| MIN | 313 | 14 | 27 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15MINThomas VanekAssists: Mikael Granlund, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:17MINThomas VanekAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 15:31MINJordan SchroederAssists: Marco Scandella, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 19:49CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Jay McClement, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 2:16MINNate ProsserGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 5:02CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal, Michal Jordan · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 6:32CARElias LindholmAssists: Justin Faulk, Jay McClement · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 3:15MINErik HaulaAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Stephane Veilleux · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:11MINZach PariseENAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:23MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P1 16:36CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:36CARAndrej Sekera: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:36MINMikko Koivu: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:03MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:51CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Nestrasil7:41
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Staal14:35
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Semin – Gerbe – Nash6:59
xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm6:52
xG 0.19–0.47 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Jordan13:04
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Liles – Gleason11:35
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Sekera – Faulk16:45
xG 0.62–0.94 (39%)attempts 25–15goals 2–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise12:35
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Schroeder – Coyle – Niederreiter10:17
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Granlund – Fontaine10:49
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–12goals 2–0
- Veilleux – Brodziak – Haula8:22
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon13:00
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin16:39
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–19goals 3–0
- Scandella – Dumba3:13
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).