Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 09 | 110 | 125 |
| COL | 110 | 114 | 26 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan O'Reilly · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:28COLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Dennis Everberg, Nate Guenin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 3:20COLJarome IginlaAssists: Brad Stuart, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 9:58DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jamie Benn, Jyrki Jokipakka · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:36COLDennis EverbergAssists: Alex Tanguay, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:23COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:59DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:59COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:03DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:22DALJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:22COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:22COLCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:22COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:22DALJason Demers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:19DALColton Sceviour: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Spezza – Benn – Eakin2:12
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Morin – McKenzie2:53
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Ritchie3:06
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Eakin – Garbutt4:48
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg17:19
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Demers – Benn10:47
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Jokipakka14:52
xG 0.20–1.29 (13%)attempts 8–28goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Mitchell – Everberg7:54
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Iginla – Talbot – Duchene9:36
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:41
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey4:12
xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie10:52
xG 0.98–0.12 (89%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden15:00
xG 0.70–0.20 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Hejda – Redmond12:47
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).