Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 113 | 09 | 230 |
| CGY | 011 | 214 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:12VANRonalds KeninsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 6:48CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 11:42CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 17:43VANLinden VeyAssists: Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 1:41CGYLance BoumaGWGAssists: David Jones, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:32CGYJoe Colborne: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:32VANLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:21VANDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:11VANLinden Vey: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:18CGYDennis Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:46VANDaniel Sedin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:46CGYMatt Stajan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – Vey9:52
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins8:38
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Dorsett – Matthias – Kassian9:56
xG 0.07–0.39 (16%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:13
xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Clendening6:43
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev3:30
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Clendening5:21
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Raymond – Jooris10:07
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan11:05
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma12:16
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Stajan – Byron – Colborne7:59
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:11
xG 1.19–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell13:52
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Russell7:25
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).