Sun, Feb 15, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 09 | 16 | 230 |
| BUF | 05 | 111 | 06 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Nick Schultz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:57BUFNikita ZadorovPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 12:45PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Ryan White, Michael Del Zotto · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:29BUFTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:25PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:35BUFAndre Benoit: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – White – Raffl7:54
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier13:43
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:00
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn14:52
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann8:40
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto15:13
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann4:47
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Mitchell14:16
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ellis – Hodgson – Larsson5:30
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Flynn10:44
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons12:30
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zadorov16:11
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Weber13:32
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Benoit – Bogosian15:59
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).