Mon, Feb 16, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 319 | 25 | 636 |
| OTT | 110 | 210 | 012 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:15OTTErik CondraAssists: Erik Karlsson, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:06CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Riley Nash, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 10:52OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 13:26CARNathan GerbeAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Michal Jordan · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 13:58OTTCody CeciAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P2 19:06CARJay McClementGWGAssists: Brad Malone, Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 2:33CARMichal JordanPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 9:49CARChris TerryPPAssists: Ron Hainsey, Andrej Nestrasil · Slap, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:40OTTMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P2 6:02OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:11OTTJared Cowen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:10CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:16OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:47CARPatrick Dwyer: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:31CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Terry – Nestrasil10:42
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Staal11:47
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm10:32
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone10:02
xG 0.18–0.53 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Jordan14:03
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk20:40
xG 0.59–1.32 (31%)attempts 15–27goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore14:20
xG 0.53–1.36 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Chiasson – Lazar8:22
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Legwand – Condra – Prince7:25
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:00
xG 1.08–0.68 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone12:39
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci14:24
xG 1.44–0.71 (67%)attempts 28–10goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson14:34
xG 1.03–0.35 (75%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:51
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).