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Ice Lab

Centre · #15

Andrej Nestrasil

Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes(traded during the season)
Age
35
Shoots
Left
Height
191 cm
Weight
91 kg
Born
Prague, CZE
Draft
2009, round 3, #75 (DET)

Career · 2014–15 to 2016–17

Games
128
Goals
17
Points
48
TOI per game
13:25
xGF% (5v5)
53.2%
Goals above expected
−7.1

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2014–15DET13022−311:04160.0%11.763.9%
2014–15CAR4171118+214:056610.6%48.054.4%
2014–15All teams5471320−113:21828.5%59.755.7%
2015–16CAR5591423+414:211058.6%211.851.2%
2016–17CAR19145−310:54273.7%02.651.4%
Total2 teams128173148013:252147.9%724.153.2%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.20.40.60.8120406080100120
10m12m14m16m18m20406080100120Game

Player card

How 2014–15 to 2016–17 compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

2nd line

66th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

3rd line
  • Goals /600.5943rd pct
  • Assists /601.0870th pct
  • ixG /600.8477th pct
  • Goals above expected−7.19th pct

Play-driving

1st line
  • xGF% (5v5)53.2%82nd pct
  • CF% (5v5)54.9%95th pct
  • Relative xGF%+2.076th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.1051st pct

Usage

3rd line
  • TOI per game13:2547th pct
  • PP time share23.5%54th pct
  • Offensive zone starts61.9%70th pct
  • Quality of competition24.2%56th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Faceoffs

How often Nestrasil wins the draw over 2014–15 to 2016–17, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 610+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

51.2%

66–63 · below the 610 draws of a regular

Against an average centre

50.7%

Opponents won 49.5% of their draws; an average centre would have won 50.5% against them.

Wins above average

+1

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

3.1

129 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

60%20 · −3.255%38 · −1.038%24 · −1.250%6 · −4.467%6 · +0.567%6 · 0.020%5 · 0.055%11 · +0.846%13 · +1.1Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone48.4% 30–32
  • Neutral zone55.8% 24–19
  • Defensive zone50.0% 12–12

By strength

  • Even strength50.8% 60–58
  • Power play54.5% 6–5

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +17 after a win, +10 after a loss. Each win was worth -1.1 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2014–159458.5%57.9%
2015–162532.0%32.7%
2016–171030.0%28.4%

Finishing

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

−7.1 goals above expected

051015202520406080100120Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−20−100+10+20+30+40