Mon, Feb 16, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 15 | 00 | 112 | 217 |
| COL | 315 | 212 | 07 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54COLCody McLeodAssists: Paul Carey, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 3:03COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jarome Iginla, Zach Redmond · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 9:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Lucas Lessio, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 14:58COLNick HoldenPPGWGAssists: Zach Redmond, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 7:28COLTyson BarrieAssists: Jarome Iginla, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 17:18COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 2:37ARIMark ArcobelloAssists: Michael Stone, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:40ARIJoe Vitale: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:01ARITobias Rieder: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:35ARIKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Arcobello – Martinook7:48
xG 0.76–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Erat – Chipchura – Korpikoski2:11
xG 0.45–0.05 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Lessio4:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Erat – Vermette – Korpikoski7:48
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone19:22
xG 1.26–0.93 (57%)attempts 18–16goals 1–2
- Campbell – Gormley4:21
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy7:30
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Talbot – Duchene14:35
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg11:17
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:28
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey10:05
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Redmond18:37
xG 1.09–0.61 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 3–1
- Guenin – Barrie15:49
xG 0.74–0.78 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Stuart – Holden16:18
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).