Tue, Feb 17, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 18 | 28 | 430 |
| CAR | 07 | 018 | 113 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:06NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 6:58NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Matt Martin, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 7:09NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Thomas Hickey, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 11:14CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 15:41NYIJohn TavaresENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:41CARJohn-Michael Liles: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53NYITravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:52CARChris Terry: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:08NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Nelson10:55
xG 1.22–0.52 (70%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Strome9:07
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Clutterbuck – Kulemin11:48
xG 0.46–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:51
xG 0.38–1.00 (28%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – de Haan14:25
xG 1.35–0.24 (85%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:34
xG 0.67–0.78 (46%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic17:44
xG 0.32–1.47 (18%)attempts 9–33goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Staal14:09
xG 1.47–0.35 (81%)attempts 26–9goals 1–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone10:50
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm8:53
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Terry – Nestrasil11:50
xG 0.41–1.13 (26%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk20:37
xG 1.57–0.41 (79%)attempts 33–18goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles15:39
xG 0.74–0.86 (46%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Gleason – Jordan15:25
xG 0.66–1.39 (32%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).