Thu, Feb 19, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 111 | 012 | 03 | 2 | 332 |
| PHI | 16 | 116 | 012 | 04 | 1 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Brian Flynn, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:23PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Braydon Coburn, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 0:38BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 8:45PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 2. BUF Brian Gionta scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 5. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 6. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 7. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 8. BUF Brian Flynn scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:38PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:41BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52BUFTyler Ennis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:46BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:13PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25BUFTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:25PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:06BUFChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:02PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Mitchell10:50
xG 1.27–0.12 (91%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ellis – Hodgson – Larsson5:14
xG 0.02–0.05 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Flynn5:26
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons11:43
xG 0.21–0.97 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber14:06
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov10:33
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Benoit – Bogosian17:43
xG 0.64–1.19 (35%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – White – Schenn7:09
xG 0.71–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare6:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:13
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:35
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann13:56
xG 1.13–0.14 (89%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz14:08
xG 1.25–1.15 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Coburn – Del Zotto2:37
xG 0.03–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).