Thu, Feb 19, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 17 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 321 |
| MTL | 011 | 216 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 10:32MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 11:54FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:57FLASteven KampferAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 4. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
- 5. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 7. MTL P.K. Subban stopped
- 8. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 9. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 10. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 11. MTL Andrei Markov stopped
- 12. FLA Dave Bolland scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:55FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:55FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:55MTLJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:55MTLJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad14:01
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov17:22
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky6:19
xG 0.05–0.30 (14%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bolland13:02
xG 0.07–0.61 (10%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Petrovic11:45
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad19:25
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Gudbranson18:41
xG 0.09–1.32 (7%)attempts 7–19goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:38
xG 1.50–0.20 (88%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Eller – Sekac14:34
xG 0.82–0.21 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Prust – Weise – de la Rose11:40
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bournival – Thomas6:56
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban17:45
xG 1.28–0.31 (80%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu16:46
xG 1.11–0.16 (88%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Pateryn – Tinordi9:31
xG 0.23–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).