Mon, Dec 15, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 19 | 214 | 04 | 0 | 433 |
| BUF | 09 | 310 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:11BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:00BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Tyler Ennis · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 7:32BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Brian Flynn, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 13:42OTTMark StoneAssists: Kyle Turris, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 2:02OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Erik Condra, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
- P3 5:04OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Mark Borowiecki · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 16:31BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Marcus Foligno, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:05BUFTyson Strachan: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:05BUFTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05BUFTyson Strachan: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:05OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:05OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:31OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44BUFAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
- P2 2:31OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57OTTMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:57BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:41BUFNikita Zadorov: Kneeing2 min
- P3 6:57BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57OTTAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone8:55
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Condra – Chiasson – Lazar6:02
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Legwand – Michalek – Greening8:10
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad8:25
xG 0.09–0.90 (9%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Borowiecki12:28
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Gryba – Borowiecki3:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen2:36
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Flynn6:45
xG 0.71–0.10 (88%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:43
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Stafford – Foligno – Deslauriers3:32
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Stewart – Hodgson2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Meszaros2:50
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Benoit – Ristolainen9:25
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Myers – Zadorov16:27
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).