Fri, Feb 20, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 07 | 313 | 430 |
| CHI | 09 | 112 | 07 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52COLTyson BarrieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 9:05CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brad Richards, Michal Rozsival · Snap, 0.43 xG1–1
- P3 11:05COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 11:29COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 14:13COLBrad StuartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:35COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 14:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:10CHIMarian Hossa: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:10COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:59COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:44CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:44CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Mitchell – Everberg11:15
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:33
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey6:13
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Iginla – Talbot – Duchene13:24
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Holden15:47
xG 0.84–0.30 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie7:10
xG 0.60–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden2:20
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – Kane12:12
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Hartman5:29
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Sharp – Smith – Kruger5:41
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Hossa – Toews – Saad12:05
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Keith15:36
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Cumiskey13:35
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:57
xG 0.60–1.02 (37%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).