Sun, Feb 22, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 015 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 238 |
| BUF | 03 | 14 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:46BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 15:43NSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Cody Franson, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. NSH Mike Santorelli scored
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 4. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
- 7. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 8. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:45NSHMike Santorelli: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:20BUFChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00BUFBrian Flynn: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:23NSHMike Santorelli: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:15BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:32BUFAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:52BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:59NSHMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:08NSHCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:08NSHColin Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08BUFTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:02BUFAndre Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:00BUFZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg10:29
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 21–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque6:51
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith7:20
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Wilson – Beck6:14
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi15:12
xG 0.84–0.07 (92%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Jones8:03
xG 0.46–0.16 (73%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones2:52
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell7:44
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Larsson3:22
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons8:21
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Flynn7:22
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen8:11
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Pysyk12:20
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Benoit – Bogosian13:29
xG 0.22–0.90 (20%)attempts 3–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).