Sun, Feb 22, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 18 | 15 | 220 |
| MIN | 011 | 09 | 615 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:33DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: John Klingberg, Brett Ritchie · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 1:40MINZach PariseAssists: Christian Folin, Justin Fontaine · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 3:23MINMikko KoivuUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 8:41MINStephane VeilleuxGWGAssists: Marco Scandella, Kyle Brodziak · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–3
- P3 13:25MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 14:33MINMikael GranlundAssists: Nate Prosser, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 17:52MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 18:17DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jamie Benn, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:31DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:12MINStephane Veilleux: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:19MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Benn2:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – Benn11:54
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Ritchie5:28
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Sceviour – Garbutt4:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Demers – Benn13:56
xG 0.15–0.24 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:52
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–3
- Daley – Jokipakka16:40
xG 0.21–1.02 (17%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Granlund – Fontaine13:08
xG 0.60–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 3–0
- Veilleux – Brodziak – Haula5:07
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Vanek – Schroeder – Coyle13:10
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Niederreiter12:50
xG 0.15–0.17 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Folin9:04
xG 0.69–0.10 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 3–1
- Scandella – Dumba14:40
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Scandella – Prosser2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).