Tue, Feb 24, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 08 | 07 | 124 |
| CAR | 115 | 210 | 110 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Eric Staal, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 17:46PHINicklas GrossmannAssists: Jakub Voracek, Matt Read · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:16CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:55CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.46 xG1–3
- P3 14:37CARJay McClementAssists: Brad Malone · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:08PHINick Schultz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:34CARAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:59PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:23CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:43PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:36PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Read – Couturier9:42
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare8:24
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Schenn8:57
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl12:58
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto3:09
xG 0.40–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald13:34
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Streit – Schultz12:08
xG 0.15–0.66 (19%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Staal – Lindholm13:11
xG 0.64–0.32 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone8:55
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner8:44
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Tlusty – Rask11:39
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk15:17
xG 1.45–0.41 (78%)attempts 26–14goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore15:51
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Gleason – Jordan14:01
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).