Tue, Feb 24, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 218 | 04 | 431 |
| CBJ | 013 | 216 | 018 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 14:42BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:18CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:00BUFMark PysykGWGAssists: Brian Flynn, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 4:30BUFChris StewartPPAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Slap, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 7:24CBJKevin ConnautonAssists: James Wisniewski, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:50BUFZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 2:29CBJAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min
- P2 3:06CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:43BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:43BUFChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:43CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:09BUFMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:08BUFTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Hodgson – Larsson4:00
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons4:22
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Larsson2:15
xG 0.03–0.06 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell13:00
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benoit – Bogosian17:39
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen9:30
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Pysyk13:47
xG 0.36–1.02 (26%)attempts 9–23goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Johansen – Wennberg11:42
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:33
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Foligno – Anisimov – Dano10:11
xG 0.39–0.25 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp5:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard15:02
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 28–5goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton11:59
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Wisniewski2:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).