Thu, Feb 26, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Arizona Coyotes 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 317 | 09 | 014 | 340 |
| NYR | 112 | 212 | 114 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41ARIMark ArcobelloAssists: David Moss, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:11NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 17:54ARISam GagnerPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 19:20ARISam GagnerPPAssists: Michael Stone, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.30 xG3–1
- P2 5:33NYRLee StempniakAssists: John Moore · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 19:48NYRChris KreiderPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 17:46NYRLee StempniakGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:29ARIBrandon Gormley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39NYRJohn Moore: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:39ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:20NYRMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:23NYRKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:22NYRKevin Klein: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:54ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48ARIMike Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:39NYRMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Gagner – Rieder8:53
xG 0.92–0.82 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Erat – Moss – Arcobello11:06
xG 0.71–0.64 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Doan – Vermette – Lessio11:16
xG 0.75–0.87 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Vitale – Samuelsson7:07
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Campbell14:49
xG 1.64–1.06 (61%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
- Gormley – Murphy11:38
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson17:02
xG 0.28–1.47 (16%)attempts 9–24goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:07
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:09
xG 0.60–0.43 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller8:24
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:09
xG 0.69–1.02 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore8:47
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:03
xG 1.32–0.93 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore4:24
xG 0.01–0.42 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).