Thu, Feb 26, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 118 | 213 | 335 |
| SJS | 114 | 16 | 02 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Joe Thornton, Scott Hannan · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:53DETTeemu PulkkinenPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:51SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 13:32DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Tomas Tatar, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 18:45DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:51SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:19DETTomas Jurco: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:05DETDarren Helm: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:10SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:42DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17DETJoakim Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17SJSMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33SJSMatt Nieto: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:03SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:19DETJoakim Andersson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar11:13
xG 1.34–0.05 (97%)attempts 21–3goals 1–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen6:57
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Sheahan8:38
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening8:22
xG 0.07–0.68 (10%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser13:26
xG 0.91–0.19 (83%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Kindl – Marchenko9:12
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:47
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Nieto – Hertl10:20
xG 0.63–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson9:35
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Goodrow – Tierney4:22
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels10:47
xG 0.18–1.44 (11%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Irwin12:24
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Braun – Dillon11:28
xG 0.11–0.66 (15%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic14:30
xG 0.13–1.06 (11%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).